Monte Carlo Simulation — Sports Betting Statistics — Trademate Sports

This article analyses how implied edges and number of bets affects different aspects of a betting history given the fractional Kelly staking strategy — in particular the expected fund growth and profit align with the probabilities of going bankrupt and of obtaining no profit.

The analysis is carried out by use of simulations in R, where the goal was to imitate real betting histories as close as possible.

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Originally published at on March 31, 2020.