How to reduce variance in sports betting?
1 min readSep 17, 2019
In this article, I’ll briefly go into the different parameters that ultimately decides your variance. If you are unfamiliar with what variance is and why it is important, start reading this section from the beginning. For the bettors out there that do not enjoy larger swings in your bankroll and deviance from your expected value, I’ll also discuss what actions you can take in order to minimise those swings.
When placing trades — there are 4 main parameters that impacts your variance;
- Odds
- Time until the game starts
- The edge %
- Whether you place bets that are dependant of each other
- Use a lower Kelly Percentage
- Set a maximum bet
Read more here.