How to Beat the Bookies with Accumulators & Help Your Account Life | The Neutral Hedge Gambit

What’s the only thing better than finding a great value bet that gives you massive expected value (+EV), while taking back some of the profits from the bookies? Finding two or three of them! Trademate Sports specialises in finding these bets for you and giving you guidance on how much to stake on them to optimise your bankroll growth. When done right, their value betting method will produce exponential growth of your bankroll, as long as the variance doesn’t knock you into a downswing. Alex Vella, Marketing Manager of Trademate Sports & part-time Professional Sports Bettor, has been very successful with this method in his own betting, and has limited his variance by staking at 30% of the full Kelly fraction that Trademate calculates for you. Recently, though, I’ve been showing him a different way to limit variance when putting two or three bets into an accumulator, that I call the Neutral Hedge Gambit (NHG). And while it may have a little more variance initially, this method can grow your bankroll much quicker, even if the edges on each leg of your accumulator are smaller than expected.

How does it work?

Normally accumulators are a terrible idea, because the house’s edge on each bet adds together into a larger house advantage. Recreational punters often love to build these kinds of parlay bets, so by doing that you may look more recreational to the books and keep your accounts under the radar for longer. The basic idea of my method is that, when Trademate shows you several trades at the same bookmaker that all have a decent edge, you can combine two or more of them into an accumulator bet with an edge even bigger than for each individual trade. The downside to combining them, though, is that you end up winning your bet a smaller fraction of the time and need to stake a small percentage of your bankroll if you just let it ride. The NHG method allows you to still win most of your value, even when the last leg of your accumulator loses, by showing you how to stake more up front and then optimally hedge against it with a neutral EV hedge bet. This means you’ll win less when all your legs win, but you will still win something as long as only the last leg loses. Even if you have to make a slightly -EV hedge bet at the end, on average you still come out way ahead of flat staking techniques or even fractional Kelly staking (which was designed for making one bet at a time, not for accumulators!). In this article I’ll show you step-by-step instructions for how to stake your accumulator, as well as how to stake your hedge bet, and present some simulated results to show you just how powerful this technique can be.

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Originally published at https://www.tradematesports.com.