Customers’ Variance Analysis of Trademate Performance

This was originally posted on our Facebook Group by a Trademate customer who we will refer to as JCM. Because the post was so good, we thought we’d post it on our blog for everyone to see. Thank you JCM and enjoy everyone!

Hello guys. I’ve seen a few posts lately (some are actually mine), with poor results, wondering about variance, etc. I’m myself in a pretty sick downswing, and my only way to cope with it is by making sure I’m doing things the right way and having some extra assurance that I’m having just “bad variance” at the moment. I normally use this betting simulator to forecast future results and check if my EV is in-line. However it’s based on pure averages, not on concrete data.

I found recently that I can download my own trades on a CSV with the Trademate Sports Analytics package, so I downloaded it and built a script to perform a simulation. The program goes one by one through all my trades, using the actual edges and odds I was offered for the past 1.5k trades, and runs the outcome randomly hundreds of times according to the parameters I enter.

I can choose to simulate as many trades as I want, and with as many samples as I choose. The results are insane. Variance is way, way bigger than I expected before getting into value betting. Placing 1k trades is a drop in the ocean, and I found that the proper threshold we need to cross in order to really beat variance is over 10k trades. Let me show you some results.

Click the link below to read the whole article :)

Originally published at https://www.tradematesports.com.